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The figures for the Dubai real estate market 2026 tell a different story from the headlines: the market has slowed down, but not in the way it is usually described. Transaction volumes have fallen, prices are holding for now and rents are falling. This year is hardest for owners who let short term. We have collected figures from primary sources for the first half and July 2026 and translated them into what they mean for someone from the Czech Republic or Slovakia who owns property in Dubai or is considering buying.
Right at the start, one point that explains why media headlines contradict each other so much: every source counts something different. Before you start comparing percentages, read the second section. Without it, even someone from the industry gets lost in the figures on the Dubai market.
Table of Contents
How did the Dubai real estate market perform in the first half of 2026?
Transaction volumes fell significantly, while prices stayed slightly above last year's level. What matters most, however, is the split of the year into two halves: the first quarter was a record, the second brought a sharp drop.
The only official figure the Dubai Land Department has published for 2026 in its own press release covers the first quarter. DLD reports transactions worth 252 billion AED for Q1 2026, up 31% year on year in value and 6% in number. The investor base widened to 48,448 investors, of whom 29,312 were new.
The second quarter was a different story. REIDIN counted for Q2 2026 36,620 residential transactions worth 87.94 billion AED, i.e. 19% fewer transactions and 36% lower value quarter on quarter. In their quarterly review of the UAE market, CBRE analysts describe a turning point from the beginning of March and expect the decline to continue.
July brought a mild recovery. According to DLD data processed by Al Masdar, 13,930 properties worth 34.88 billion AED were sold in July 2026, up 6.9% month on month in value and 1.2% in number.
Why do the figures on the Dubai market differ so much in the media?
Because every source measures a different basket of transactions, and almost no one says so in the headline. The gap between the lowest and the highest published figure for the same half-year is almost twofold.
| Value | Number | What it includes | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 419.9 billion AED | 112,850 | all transactions including mortgages and gifts | DLD via Emirates 24/7 |
| 286.43 billion AED | 86,005 | sales only: units, buildings and land | DLD via Khaleej Times |
| 221.4 billion AED | 79,300 | residential property only | Cavendish Maxwell |
All three figures are correct. But they describe three different things, so they cannot be compared with each other or with last year's figures without knowing what last year's figure included. This is exactly where most of the contradictions you come across in articles arise.
A textbook example from this August: several media outlets wrote that rents in Dubai rose by 1.9%. That figure does not describe the level of rent but the number of registered tenancy contracts in the first seven months of the year, according to an analysis by fäm Properties. It therefore does not contradict the fall in rents reported by CBRE and REIDIN; it measures something else. Rental activity is growing, rent levels are falling, and both are true at the same time.
That is why this article does not give a year-on-year comparison of the whole half-year as a single hard figure. According to a calculation from DLD data published by Khaleej Times, the value of sales in H1 2026 is roughly 12% below the record first half of 2025. Other aggregations arrive at different percentages because they work with a different base. What is certain, and what the sources agree on: in the number of transactions, this year's second quarter is well below last year's, by tens of per cent.
Are property prices in Dubai falling?
Not yet; year on year, prices are still above last year's level. The pace of growth has stopped, however, and quarter on quarter a number of areas are already falling.
For the second quarter of 2026, CBRE reports year-on-year price growth of 1.9% for all property, 1.3% for apartments and 5.7% for villas. In the same report, however, it explicitly expects the next quarter to turn negative once registration data catch up with the reality of the market. Cavendish Maxwell measured an average price of 1,639 AED per square foot in June, 2.6% lower quarter on quarter.
For readers used to the metric system, square metres are easier to picture. A square foot is roughly a tenth of a square metre, so Dubai prices look like this:
| Property type | Per square foot | Per square metre |
|---|---|---|
| Apartments | 1,791 AED | 19,278 AED |
| Villas and townhouses | 2,325 AED | 25,026 AED |
| Market average (June, Cavendish Maxwell) | 1,639 AED | 17,642 AED |
The average, however, hides big differences between areas. Quarter on quarter, according to CBRE, apartment prices fell 9% on Palm Jumeirah and around 7% in Business Bay and Downtown, while DIFC and Meydan held their level. For villas, Jumeirah Golf Estates fell 8%, Sustainable City 7% and Dubai Hills 5%.
If you are interested in how the Dubai market behaved in previous cycles, we look at it in the article on how Dubai real estate has survived every major crisis.
What is happening with rents in Dubai?
Rents are falling, and that is this year's most significant change. All the sources we follow consistently report a quarter-on-quarter decline.
CBRE measured a quarter-on-quarter fall in rents of 6.2% in Q2 2026 overall, 6.5% for apartments and 4.0% for villas. REIDIN reports for June a fall in the rental index of 2.16% compared with May.
On the year-on-year change, however, the sources contradict each other, and it is only fair to say so openly. CBRE reports a year-on-year fall of 2.6%, REIDIN 2.55%, while Cavendish Maxwell reports year-on-year growth of 7.8% for the same period. This is not a mistake by any of them: each follows a different basket of properties and a different methodology. If someone presents one of these figures to you as "the state of the market", they are picking and choosing. The short-term direction is clear and everyone agrees on it; the annual balance is not.
By area, the quarter-on-quarter drop in rents was strongest where the most was built and where there are the most short-term rentals:
| Area | Type | Change over the quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Dubai Hills Estate | villas | -12% |
| Al Barsha | villas | -11% |
| Downtown Dubai | apartments | -11% |
| Dubai Hills Estate | apartments | -10% |
| Dubai Marina | apartments | -10% |
| Jumeirah Park | villas | -8% |
According to CBRE, Dubai Festival City and Green Community West were more resilient. Two sentences from the CBRE report matter more to owners than all the percentages put together: new tenancy contracts are now being agreed well below renewals of existing ones, and former short-term rentals are spilling over into the long-term market, which pushes rents down further.
Actual annual rents by area, and how much a landlord may raise the rent on renewal, are covered in a separate article on Dubai rent prices in 2026.
Why is 2026 the toughest year for short-term rentals?
Because two things came together at once: significantly fewer guests and significantly more competition. For owners who let by the night, this matters more than the movement in property prices.
Hotel data in the CBRE report, measured by Co-Star, show the following for the first half of 2026 compared with the same period of 2025:
| Market | Occupancy | ADR | RevPAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dubai | -30.3 pts | -7.0% | -35.2% |
| UAE overall | -27.7 pts | -5.6% | -31.8% |
| Abu Dhabi | -16.8 pts | -4.3% | -20.3% |
| Ras Al Khaimah | -32.1 pts | +5.2% | -28.6% |
A 35% drop in revenue per room in Dubai is not a minor blip. Short-term rentals share the same guests as hotels, so it affects them directly.
Weaker demand has been joined by stronger competition. According to the First Class Property Management index published in Khaleej Times, at the end of the second quarter of 2026 there were 33,795 active short-term rental listings in Dubai, 10.2% more year on year. Compared with the January peak of 36,500 listings, that is 7% fewer, but the year-on-year direction is clear: more units are sharing a smaller pie.
Two figures from the same source, however, show where there is still room. The average length of stay has increased from five nights to six, which reduces the number of handovers and cleanings for the same revenue. And while occupancy in Downtown Dubai was 59% and in Dubai Creek Harbour 66%, professionally managed portfolios reported 87%. That gap matters more this year than in previous years, because in a strong year the market carries even a poorly run unit, and in a weak year it does not.
According to the same index, the gross yield on one-bedroom apartments is 7.2% in the short-term model against 5.2% in the long-term model. A short-term rental therefore still earns more, but the two-point difference has to be weighed against the work involved. We look at the differences between the two models in detail in our article on short-term and long-term rentals.
How many new homes were added in Dubai?
In the first half of 2026, roughly 18,000 to 24,800 units were completed, depending on which source you use. That is noticeably more than last year, and it is the main reason why rents are falling.
Cavendish Maxwell reports 24,800 units delivered in the first half, almost 38% more year on year and 12% more than in the second half of 2025. CBRE works with a figure of around 18,000 in its report. The difference is down to a different definition of a completed unit, but both figures point in the same direction.
The more interesting half of that statistic is the other one. New project launches have dropped sharply: in the first half of 2026, developers launched 28,000 units in 124 projects, whereas in the same period of 2025 it was 102,000 units in 410 projects. The supply that is pushing rents down today is therefore largely the tail end of older projects. In two to three years, the increase in new supply will be considerably lower.
Is Dubai's population still growing?
Yes, and that is the strongest argument against doomsday scenarios. As of 30 July 2026, the city had 4,741,335 inhabitants, and 161,335 people had been added since January, roughly 23,000 a month.
The growth rate in the second quarter of 2026 accelerated to 1.86%, against 1.55% in the first. Watch out for one comparison that often gets mixed up in articles: the figure of 4.58 million inhabitants and growth of 7.5% refers to the end of 2025, not to today. Put in the same sentence, the two figures look like a contradiction, but they are two different points in time.
Visa data also confirm demand for housing. According to GDRFA Dubai figures, 1,051,978 new residence visas were issued in the first half of 2026, 910,552 were renewed and around 66,000 golden visas were granted.
The macroeconomic background is weaker this year than expected, though. The UAE's GDP growth forecast for 2026 has shifted to -0.04%, even though growth of 4.8% was expected at the start of the year. Inflation in Dubai reached 5.7% year on year in June, the highest since August 2022. A return to growth of around 5% is expected for 2027.
What does this mean for property owners in Dubai?
This year is about managing the unit, not waiting for the price to rise. Specifically, we recommend four things.
- Plan for lower occupancy and a lower nightly rate. A budget built on last year's figures will not add up this year. When you calculate your return, use this year's occupancy, not the 2025 one.
- Consider switching to an annual contract, but with the numbers in hand. A long-term rental earns less this year, but it is predictable and low-maintenance. At the same time, new tenancy contracts are now agreed below renewals, so timing matters.
- Watch the deadline on renewals. The party that wants to change the rent must give at least 90 days' notice. In a falling market this works the other way too: the tenant may ask for a reduction, and a landlord who misses the deadline cannot change the terms for the next year.
- The difference between 59% and 87% occupancy is your entire yield this year. In a year when the market does not carry you, the quality of management decides: seasonal pricing, speed of response to enquiries, reviews, photos and maintenance.
If you own property in Dubai and manage it remotely from abroad, we will calculate both models for your specific unit using this year's figures. See what our property management involves.
Is 2026 a good time to buy property in Dubai?
For buyers, this year's market is more favourable than last year's. For the first time in years, the negotiating position has shifted to their side.
The structure of transactions shows this too. In July 2026, ready properties made up only 30.9% of the number of transactions but 54.2% of their value, because 4,308 transactions in ready properties were worth 18.92 billion AED, while 9,622 off-plan transactions were worth 15.96 billion AED. Interest is shifting towards what is finished and earning straight away.
Three things we would watch out for this year:
- Location matters more than before. The spread between areas is large this year: while apartments on Palm Jumeirah fell 9% quarter on quarter, DIFC and Meydan are holding. The market average tells you nothing about a specific building.
- With off-plan, factor in the supply still coming. A unit delivered into a market where more than 20,000 others were delivered in a half-year rents differently from three years ago.
- Ask about real occupancy, not the advertised yield. A gross yield of 7.2% applies with good occupancy and professional management, not automatically.
You will find specific units in the areas mentioned in this article in our offer, for example a studio in Downtown Dubai, a one-bedroom apartment in Dubai Marina or a one-bedroom apartment in Business Bay. The full overview is in our property listings, and we cover the wider context of investing on the investment properties page. Current apartments for rent are on the apartment rentals in Dubai page.
Frequently asked questions
Are property prices in Dubai falling in 2026?
Not yet year on year. For the second quarter of 2026, CBRE reports price growth of 1.9% compared with last year, and 5.7% for villas. Quarter on quarter, however, a number of areas are already falling, for example apartments on Palm Jumeirah by 9%. CBRE also expects the year-on-year comparison to turn negative in the following quarter.
How much have rents in Dubai fallen in 2026?
By 6.2% quarter on quarter according to CBRE, and by 6.5% for apartments. On the year-on-year change the sources contradict each other: CBRE reports a fall of 2.6% and REIDIN 2.55%, while Cavendish Maxwell reports growth of 7.8%. Each follows a different basket of properties, which is why the figures diverge.
Why do the figures on the Dubai market differ so much between articles?
Because each source counts a different basket of transactions. For the first half of 2026 there are three valid figures: 419.9 billion AED for all transactions including mortgages, 286.43 billion for sales alone and 221.4 billion for residential property.
Is short-term rental worth it in 2026?
It still earns more than long-term rental: the gross yield on one-bedroom apartments is 7.2% against 5.2%. This year is tougher, though: hotel revenue per room fell 35% and listings grew by 10.2%. The quality of management decides, with professionally managed portfolios reporting occupancy of 87% against 59% in Downtown.
How many new homes were completed in Dubai in 2026?
In the first half, roughly 18,000 to 24,800 units depending on the source's methodology, 38% more year on year. New project launches, however, have dropped sharply: 28,000 units in 124 launches against 102,000 units in 410 launches a year earlier. The pressure of new supply should therefore ease in two to three years.
Is Dubai's population still growing?
Yes. As of 30 July 2026, 4,741,335 people lived in Dubai, and 161,335 residents had been added since January, around 23,000 a month. Growth accelerated to 1.86% in the second quarter. The figure of 4.58 million refers to the end of 2025, so it is not a contradiction but a different point of measurement.
Is now a good time to buy property in Dubai?
For buyers, the position this year is better than last year, because sellers are more willing to negotiate and supply is broad. The spread between areas is large, however, so the market average says nothing about a specific building. We recommend checking the real occupancy of the unit, not the advertised yield.
